The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) Updates Resale Housing Forecast - December 2012 [Video]

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service MLS Systems
 
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service MLS Systems of Canadian real estate Boards and Associations in 2012 and 2013.

When CREA’s resale housing forecast was published in September, activity showed the first signs of slowing in the wake of new mortgage lending regulations. Demand has remained at lower levels, and this trend is expected to persist through the end of the year. Lower than projected third quarter sales have downgraded the prospects for activity this year in almost every province.



National resale housing activity is now projected to reach 456,300 units in 2012. This represents a 0.5 per cent decline from 458,412 sales in 2011, and stands 0.9 per cent below the 10-year average (2002 – 2011) Alberta is still expected to post the biggest annual increase this year (+13.1%), offsetting most of the projected decline in British Columbia (-10.7%).

Sales activity is expected to be less volatile next year than it was in 2012. In 2013, CREA forecasts that national sales activity will recede by two per cent to 447,400 units. This is a slightly lower level of activity than previously forecast, reflecting the ongoing impact of new mortgage rules into next year. The continuation of moderate economic, job, and income growth will temper the impact of recent mortgage rule changes, which are not expected to dampen activity much more than has already been felt until interest rates are expected to begin rising in late 2013.

“All real estate is local, so housing market prospects can and do differ among regions and communities,” said Wayne Moen, CREA President. “For that reason, buyers and sellers should talk to their REALTOR® about the housing market outlook where they live or would like to live.”

“Annual sales in 2012 reflect a stronger profile prior to recent mortgage rule changes followed by weaker activity following their implementation,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “By contrast, forecast sales in 2013 reflect an improvement from levels this summer in the immediate wake of mortgage rule changes. Even so, sales in most provinces next year are expected to remain down from levels posted prior to the most recent changes to mortgage regulations,” said Klump.
 
Despite the small downward revisions to the forecast for national sales in 2012 and 2013, activity is still expected to remain within short reach of the 10-year average (2002 – 2011).

National sales activity over the first five years of the past decade compared to the most recent five years represent two very different periods. Most of the national average price growth in the 2002-2007 period was realized amid sustained sellers’ market conditions in most large urban housing markets. Most provincial housing markets are currently balanced, and are expected to remain or return to balanced market territory for 2013.

The national average home price is projected to rise by 0.3 per cent to $363,900 in 2012, with gains in excess of that in most provinces. The smaller gain in average price nationally as compared to most provinces largely reflects a decline in sales activity among more expensive housing markets compared to 2011, particularly in British Columbia and more recently in Ontario.

The national average price is forecast to edge up another three tenths of one per cent to $365,100 in 2013, with British Columbia, Ontario, and New Brunswick registering small price declines and modest average price gains in line with or below inflation in other provinces.

CREA Updates Resale Housing Forecast» Table 1

CREA Updates Resale Housing Forecast» Table 2


* Provincial weighted average price for Quebec; does not affect unweighted national average price calculations. Information on Quebec's weighted average price calculation can be found at:


Effective January 1, 2012, the Prince Edward Island Real Estate Association began reporting sales at the point when non-title conditions had been satisfied in the Agreement of Purchase & Sale. Previously, sales were reported at the point of closing. As such, data before and after January 1, 2012 are not directly comparable.


PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this news release combines both major market and national MLS® sales information from the previous month.

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS® is a co-operative marketing system used only by Canada's real estate Boards to ensure maximum exposure of properties listed for sale.

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is one of Canada's largest single-industry trade associations, representing more than 106,000 REALTORS® working through more than 100 real estate Boards and Associations.

Further information can be found at http://crea.ca/statistics.
SOURCE: Canadian Real Estate Association
For further information:

Pierre Leduc, Media Relations
The Canadian Real Estate Association
Tel.: 613-237-7111 or 613-884-1460
E-mail: pleduc@crea.ca
 
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1 comment:

Res Course said...

That is very good comment you shared.Thank you so much that for you shared those things with us.I am wishing you to carry on with ur achievements.All the best

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